Monday, April 30, 2012

Statistically QB Nick Foles has 9 percent chance to succeed

Look at video of Nick Foles when the Arizona Wildcats had a senior offensive line (below) and you wonder why he dropped to the third round.

Foles doesn't play nearly as slow as the guy who ran the 5.1 40-yard dash at the scouting combine.

All of that said I'm reminded of telling research supplied NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock.

In the last eight drafts, 23 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round. Fifteen are starters.

In the last eight drafts, 82 quarterbacks were drafted in rounds 2 through 7. Only seven have become starters.

Statistically there's less than a 9 percent chance Foles is the Eagles' future starting quarterback.

A reader offered another way of looking at it (on

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Anonymous Dave Stoessel said...

Hey Bob, I came to that same percentage a few weeks ago when looking at QBs selected in the 2nd and 3rd rounds from 1996 - 2010. You looked at it a different way and came up with the same result...just further proof that the odds of Foles actually becoming a solid starter are slim, at best. Hopefully Reid can work his magic. is what I found and how I found it if you're interested...

April 30, 2012 at 8:17 PM 
Blogger EaglesBloggerRoom said...

Great stuff Dave.

April 30, 2012 at 8:25 PM 

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